Pandemic vs. density

High population density has been blamed for faster COVID-19 transmission, for example in cities like New York City and London.

It is yet too soon for reliable and comprehensive COVID-19 data. We must nevertheless work hard to understanding why some cities are less affected than others. High density remains a tool to reducing carbon emissions and achieving greater spatial, economic, environmental and social equity.

The below chart by McKinsey & Co explores the relationship between rate of testing, rate of reported infection, and rate of mortality from COVID-19. Testing appears to suppress COVID-19 mortality.

The chart also indicates that density is not a determinant of COVID-19 mortality rates. Some of the highest density places in the world — Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea — have managed to suppress their COVID-19 mortality rates through extensive testing, and unfortunately, in places like Singapore, through means that erode civil liberties like aggressive contact tracing.

COVID-19 has shown us that our economy and social systems are rather less resilient than we would like to think. Whereas COVID-19 can be eradicated and its impact mitigated in time without requiring an upgrade in resilience, global warming and climate change cannot be undone – we have no choice but build resilience if we are to weather the storm of climate change.

2020’s pandemic is showing us something perhaps even more important: the International Energy Agency estimates that with the resulting economic contraction the world is on course for an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions this year. This roughly coincides with the annual emissions reduction required every year going forward to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

We must now direct the spare capacity in the economy to zero carbon technology and activity, and moreover, direct this technology and activity to support high density living and build resilience against future pandemics.